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Jamie Dupree

On the Banks of the Wabash, Far Away

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Jamie Dupree
@ May 5, 2008 12:00 AM
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I've seen this play before. This time it was a few hours apart in Fort Wayne, Indiana, as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton played to much different sized crowds.

Just like in other states, Clinton draws what most politicians would say is a solid crowd, while Obama has thousands lined up on a sunny Spring day in the Midwest heartland.

Team Clinton puts a speaker outside the building on the campus of Indiana Tech for all those students who can't get in to hear her, so they can get a flavor of what's going on.

But, there was no overflow crowd. Just somewhat confused students who would walk by, hear Hillary's voice, and then keep walking.

3.8 miles away (according to my rental car GPS, which went belly up right before I arrived) the Obama crowd is lined up down the street.

As usual, there was an overflow crowd here.

But I will say once again, that I saw the same thing up close and personal in Pennsylvania. I saw the same thing in Texas, the same thing in New Hampshire. It was the same story in Ohio.

And yet, in all of those states, Clinton emerged the winner. So what's the likely outcome here?

The average of the polls on the realclearpolitics.com site gives Clinton about a 6-point edge in the Hoosier State. This is a win she must have, otherwise this race is over.

Along those lines, it seemed only fitting that when I turned on the radio as I was leaving the airport, the very first sound coming from the dashboard was that of Obama, as he was doing an ad for Rep. Andre Carson, one of Obama's superdelegates.

Unlike other states though, Obama has not had a giant advantage in terms of ads run in Indiana, mainly because there are a lot of state and local elections going on as well and the advertising space is being divvied up among a lot more candidates.

But Obama has been on the air longer than Hillary Clinton, who has had some independent outside groups spending big money here on ads that have targeted Obama.

Both candidates spent all of Sunday in the Hoosier State, first doing the Sunday shows and then hitting the road. Clinton and Obama were both in Fort Wayne and Indianapolis, while Clinton also snuck in an extra event in South Bend.

Two weeks ago in Pennsylvania, my gut said it would be about a 10-point difference for Clinton. I'm not sure what to think here, as there are factors that can work for both sides. We'll explore that more tomorrow.



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